The southwest monsoon has officially arrived in India, making landfall in Kerala on May 24—its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Traditionally, the monsoon begins around June 1, but this year’s early entry has sparked both curiosity and cautious optimism. While an early monsoon raises hopes for a timely agricultural season, meteorologists stress that there is no direct correlation between the onset date and total seasonal rainfall. The monsoon’s advance is governed by complex regional and global climate factors and does not guarantee uniform progression across the country.

Historical data from IMD reveals varying onset dates in recent years, such as May 30 in 2024, June 8 in 2023, and June 1 in 2020. The earliest recorded onset over Kerala since 1975 was on May 19 in 1990. Despite these fluctuations, the timing of the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala doesn’t necessarily predict its behavior elsewhere. The IMD has already forecasted above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 season, supported by the absence of El Niño conditions—which typically suppress monsoon activity in the Indian subcontinent. Rainfall ranging between 96% and 104% of the long-period average (87 cm) is classified as ‘normal’, and anything above 110% is labeled as ‘excess’.

India’s dependence on the monsoon remains critical, particularly for agriculture, which sustains nearly 42% of the population and contributes over 18% to the national GDP. Beyond farming, the rains are vital for replenishing reservoirs that supply drinking water and generate hydroelectric power. In 2024, the country recorded 934.8 mm of rainfall—108% of the long-period average—making it the wettest year since 2020. While early rains may bring relief to parched regions, experts caution that careful monitoring is essential to assess how this year’s monsoon will ultimately impact food security, water resources, and overall economic stability.