The Waqf (Amendment) Bill, which passed smoothly in the Lok Sabha with a 288-232 vote, is now set for a crucial test in the Rajya Sabha. While the ruling NDA has a clear numerical advantage, the gap between the government and the opposition is expected to be much narrower. The NDA, led by the BJP, has a strong presence in the 236-member Upper House, with 98 BJP members and additional support from its allies, bringing its strength to around 122. If independent and nominated members back the government, the tally could reach 130. Meanwhile, the opposition INDIA bloc, comprising Congress, TMC, DMK, AAP, and others, stands at 86 members and can push its numbers to 106 with support from independent MPs and three key fence-sitters—YSRCP, BJD, and BRS—who have collectively opposed the bill. However, the real test lies in whether these parties will actively vote against the bill or opt for a tactical walkout.

With the majority mark set at 119, the NDA appears to be in a comfortable position, but the final outcome depends on the voting pattern of smaller parties and independents. The nominated members, including Ranjan Gogoi, PT Usha, and Sudha Murthy, remain a crucial factor, as several are expected to side with the ruling alliance. The opposition, meanwhile, faces the challenge of ensuring full attendance, as some of its members, particularly from the CPM, may be absent due to an ongoing Party Congress in Madurai. If all opposition members vote against the bill along with undecided parties, they could create a tight contest, but a clear defeat for the government remains unlikely.

This high-stakes battle in the Rajya Sabha has political implications beyond just the Waqf Bill. It tests the unity of the opposition against the NDA’s strategic alliances and parliamentary strength. The BJP has effectively consolidated its support base, while the opposition struggles with internal coordination and unpredictable allies. With the bill already passed in the Lok Sabha, its approval in the Rajya Sabha would mark another legislative victory for the Modi government, reinforcing its dominance despite the opposition’s vocal resistance.